Hello my friends, we meet again!

It’s been way too long since I’ve posted on Paint It Red. Thankfully, the offseason is just about over. Spring Training is upon us. Pitchers and catchers have reported for duty across the country. The imminent arrival of spring is bringing leaves back to our lovely trees in New York City.

Just kidding on the last part. It’s still really damn cold outside. But still…SPRING TRAINING!!!

It’s been a very quiet offseason for the Reds. They lost Shin-Soo Choo, our on-base machine and a personal favorite of mine, to the Texas Rangers, who awarded him a $130 million contract. Bronson Arroyo, one of our most reliable and durable starting pitchers since 2006, recently signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Reds’ most notable free agent signing was Skip Schumaker – a nice player who plays all over the diamond, but not a world-beater with the bat. The only trade made by the club sent catcher Ryan Hanigan to the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-team trade that brought pitching prospect David Holmberg to Cincy. Not much else was done, which has left a lot of fans perplexed, annoyed, and, in some cases, angry.

Things seemed to change this past weekend when news broke that the Reds and starting pitcher Homer Bailey were “getting close” on a massive contract extension. As I’m posting this on Tuesday morning, nothing has been made official, but Bailey himself did confirm to Reds beat writer John Fay that he was closing in on a deal with the team.

To be honest, I was quite surprised by this news. Bailey is one year away from free agency, and with all of the money being given to quality starting pitchers lately (Clayton Kershaw and Masahiro Tanaka, for example), I figured it would be too difficult for a small-market team like the Reds to be able to give Bailey enough money to keep him around. It looks like General Manager Walt Jocketty is proving me wrong, and I’m loving every second of it.

Rumor has it that Bailey’s extension would be worth $100 million over six years. That is a TON of dough. Is he worth it? You’re damn right he is.

You may look at his career statistics and think, “Wait, how is this guy worth $100 million?” His career record is 49-45 with a 4.25 ERA. I admit that those numbers on their own are not impressive at all, but you must dig deeper to understand the true value of David “Homer” Bailey.

First of all, his stuff is top-notch. Remember, this is a guy that has thrown not one, but TWO no-hitters in his career. Not a lot of guys have done that. He mixes a mid-90s fastball with nasty sliders, curveballs, and splitters to keep hitters off-balance.

Bailey is also 27 years old, and will only continue to get better. His numbers have been trending upward his entire career, but he truly turned the corner in 2012. He threw over 200 innings for the first time, turned in a solid 3.68 ERA, and allowed fewer hits and walks than in previous years – turning in a very good 1.24 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) at the end of the season.

Homer showed no signs of slowing down last season. He struck out almost a batter per inning (8.6 K/9) and allowed only 181 hits in his 209 innings pitched on the season. His WHIP in 2013? 1.12. That, my friends, is elite. For comparison, Felix Hernandez – widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in the game – had a 1.13 WHIP last season. With his impressive stuff, age, and improving command of his pitches, Homer Bailey will be a part of the “best pitchers in baseball” conversation sooner rather than later.

Sure, we know from experience that giving big contracts to pitchers is risky business. All it can take is one arm injury to turn a pitcher’s contract into a complete waste of money.

But we also know that pitching wins championships. The Reds have fielded one of the best pitching staffs in baseball over the past few years, and Homer Bailey has played a big role in that. If the Reds want to get back to the World Series, it is crucial that they do all they can to keep their band of awesome pitchers together. It’s time to show Homer the money…or another team will happily do it instead.