A lot has happened since I last blogged about the Reds:
- They finished the 2025 season strong and – with a little help from the Mets falling on their faces – made the playoffs for the first time (in a normal MLB year) since 2013.
- They promptly got demolished by the soon-to-be champion Dodgers in a two-game Wild Card round sweep.
- Coming off a season that was disappointing (as I wrote about last time) but objectively a step forward, the Reds have largely had a quiet offseason as of mid-January – mainly putting their resources toward rebuilding the bullpen and bringing in a couple of platoon outfielders, despite the roster’s obvious need for reliable offense.
A more blunt way to describe the offseason thus far is boring. There’s still time for the front office to make some impact moves, but it’s largely been a let-down since the briefly exciting stretch of days where it seemed like hometown kid Kyle Schwarber was considering signing with Cincinnati.
As is usually the case with the Reds in recent memory, I like each of the moves they’ve made in a vacuum.
- Bringing back closer Emilio Pagan on a slightly below-market deal – even if giving him another player option for 2027 wasn’t ideal – made a lot of sense.
- I like the value of bringing in outfielder JJ Bleday – still with three years of control and one option left – with his pedigree, athleticism and age. He could end up being a better version of what Will Benson (still on the team) and Jake Fraley have offered as strong-side platoon players the last few years.
- Finally getting a sorely needed, reliable left-handed reliever in Caleb Ferguson was important.
- More recently, Pierce Johnson is a nice fit for the bullpen and can be counted on for quality innings. Relievers are volatile, but his track record indicates that he’ll at least be more dependable than, say, Scott Barlow.
Now, for some criticisms.
While each of these are solid transactions, I’m not sure how much they really move the needle and make this team better coming off an (admittedly very lucky) playoff appearance. Accounting for the guys they lost, the bullpen is probably about the same; maybe slightly better. Barring a trade, the rotation will be unchanged going into 2026. It’ll hopefully improve through, simply, the growth of the team’s younger pitchers.
The offense, however, is undoubtedly worse. The position player group lost Austin Hays and Miguel Andujar. Both guys are flawed, but they can at least hit – especially against left-handed pitching, a real weakness for this team. So far, they’ve been replaced by JJ Bleday and Dane Myers. Bleday is just a bounceback candidate and, while still relatively young, has really only had one good MLB season. Myers hits lefties well, but doesn’t provide much power and is unplayable against right-handers.
Ultimately, the front office appears to be banking on internal improvement from their young hitters. They’re hoping Sal Stewart is what he showed during his end-of-season cup of coffee and becomes a middle-of-the-order hitter. They’re hoping Matt McLain and Spencer Steer – each one more year removed from shoulder injuries – look more like the 2023 versions of themselves. They’re hoping Noelvi Marte unlocks his potential with the bat while playing a lower-stress position in right field. And they’re hoping a healthy Elly De La Cruz plays more like he did in the first half of 2025 rather than in the second half.
This could all work out. It also might not. There might be a mix of both. This strategy is based on hope and projections.
But it would be nice if ownership could let the team invest in some proven hitters to supplement the young core and, perhaps more importantly, take some pressure off them. To their credit, they tried to do that with the pursuit of Kyle Schwarber. Why did that have to be all or nothing? (Oh right, Schwarber could’ve impacted ticket sales. There certainly aren’t any other good players out there who could do that.)
And if the 2026 team payroll truly ends up being about the same as it was last season, investing about $20 million of it on three relievers – as important as the bullpen is – is a questionable allocation decision. It’s possible to build a successful bullpen cheaply, especially with the talented arms we already have in the system. It’s much more difficult to build a cheap offense.
I’ll end with this: I just wish this team would be a bit more interesting. While I fully understand that the ownership group hamstrings them with a low payroll, I wish Nick Krall, Brad Meador and the rest of the decision-makers would excite me a bit more.
The last time I was truly floored by breaking news related to the Reds? When they hired Terry Francona out of nowhere to be their manager in October 2024. As fun and shocking as that was, Tito is just a manager. He’s only going to have so much of an impact on the team on the field. Not that many player acquisitions in recent history come to mind, except for the Mat Latos trade in 2011.
Of course, the goal of the franchise is to win, not just be entertaining for its fans. But following a team is supposed to be fun too. Am I wrong for wanting them to make an aggressive move worthy of a Jeff Passan “BREAKING:” tweet? (And I mean one that doesn’t involve them trading one of their star players to a contender for prospects.)
In the meantime, I’ll keep being a diehard Reds fan – just a bored one. At least until they start winning.